Monday, July 23, 2012

The Braves, the trade deadline and the 2013 season

 (serious non hillbilly mode today)


The Deadline:

Just send em Spruill and some other parts for Dempster and reed Johnson and be done with it already.  It gives us solid starter for the playoff push and Johnson fills Diaz's spot with a guy who can play the entire field. Problem solved.(just try like hell not to move Delgado or Minor)


The Offseason:

 I've been perusing the Braves COT info in regards to their contract situation for next year,and these are the numbers for those who are signed and/or arbitration eligible and my estimations of their contracts for 2013.(I am assuming an EOF trade(or non-tender) a Jurrjens trade or non tender and Bourn gone to free agency.

Uggla- 13.2 mill  2b
Prado- 7-9 mill   3b
Hudson- 9 mill   sp
Mac- 13 mill     C
Pastornicky- bench
Ross-  2mill     bench C
Kimbrel- .7 mill   cl
Heyward- 3 mill   rf
Freeman - .7 mill   1b
Hanson- 3 mill    sp
Venters- 1.5 mill   bp
Beachy- .6 mill    sp/dl)
Medlen- 1 mill    bp
Moylan- $1 mill
Minor- .6 mill     sp
Simmons- .6 mill   ss

(sure one or two  of Delgado,Teheran and Vizacaino will probably make the starting roster next year, but all will be at or near league minimum, so it won't effect it much)

That is 16 players and a total of $57 mill,   COT has the 2012 Braves payroll listed at $93 million  so let's assume a tiny raise to $95-96 mill this year.  That leaves around $39 mill to get a starting pitcher, a left fielder a center fielder ,3 pen arms (probably only one or two free agents or trades and one or two from AAA) and 3 bench pieces.

 Let us assume, the bench and pen acquisitions take around 6 or 7 mill in total, that leaves, $33 mill for a starter , left and center field.   Bourn is obviously out as he takes nearly half of that.  I assume the Braves are going to make a serious run at Greinke in the $18-$20 mill a year range,  IF THAT HAPPENS,  barring an unknown payroll boost to exceed $100 mill annually, that will leave less than $15 mill to fill left and center.

Who will be available and would be both cheap and starter quality?  Let's take a guess...

Left Field-

Justin Upton-  $10 mill in 2013,  would cost us a lot of pieces, and leaves under $5 mill for CF  but is an interesting option to ponder

Upside: potential MVP caliber performance at a good price

Downside: expensive to acquire in prospects, might underperform, potential attitude issues



 Josh Willingham- $7 mill  , would cost a good bit too due to his cheap deal, but has expressed interest in staying with the Twins, but the right offer of young pitching could pry him away.

Upside: cheap contract that he will outperform even on a down year

Downside: might cost too much in prospects, defensive liability


Nick Swisher- Free agent, will cost between $10-$12 mill a year on a 3-4 year deal

Upside-  good defense in right would make the left field defense better, switch hitter with power

Downside-  apparently not a well liked player by team mates, high cost means a defense first CF'er



Cody Ross-  Free agent, will cost between $8 -$10 mill per for 2-3 years due to breakout season with the Red Sox

 Upside- good defender in left, scrappy hitter with power, decent value at $8 mill, probable overpay at $10

Downside- power may not translate to Turner Field well enough to rationalize deal


Alfonso Soriano- Trade candidate buy the Cubs,

Upside- avg defense, good power still , With Cubs eating salary could enable a competitive offer made to Burn

Downside- can be lazy, can be streaky, will require better players than we want to give up probably for the Cubs to make his deal in the $4-$5 mill a year range we'd like it to be.


Looking at this list , and when you combine availability, price and productivity I rank them as follows:

 Ross
Willingham
Soriano
Swisher
Upton (love to have him, but I think he's traded  before the fall)

so let's assume $8 mill for Ross in LF (just for the heck of it)

(now , Ross isn't who I'd prefer to get, but he makes the most sense to get. he is the probably the best when you apply a cost/benefit analysis to the available LF bats)

So , if we assume Greinke AND Ross, we have around $7 mill left for a CF'er.  This removes Bourn from the discussion.

 Now, the good thing is, that it DOES leave the team with lots of options.  and options that we may not have considered:


 Since we didn't trade for Ross, we still have prospects to use to gain a CF'er, and since we spent less than we could have on RF, it means we have money to make a value deal for ANOTHER starter. Ben Sheets

 Offer him a one year deal at $3 mill (incentives could make it as high as $4.5 mill)with a team option for the following year.  I bet he takes it.


Then build a package around Bethancourt and send him to the Amgels for Peter Bourjos,  he's a wunderkind with the glove in CF and had one good year with the bat before struggling this year in a platoon type role.  he will cost very little, in fact. You estimate one million bucks for him, and look at the roster and budget, for 2013!!!!


1b- Freeman
2b- Uggla
3b-Prado
SS-Simmons
C-McCann
RF-Heyward
LF-Cody Ross
CF-Bourjos


Rotation:

Greinke
Sheets
Hudson
Hanson
Minor

Pen:

Kimbrel
Venters
EOF- (look saving money on Ross/Bourjos enabled us to bring him back)
Moylan
Vizcaino
Varvaro
free agent- ditto

Bench:

Ross
Pastornicky
Gattis
Reed Johnson
Francisco/free agent


total cost:  between $91 and $96 mill depending on the arbitration breaks and Sheets hitting his incentives.

 That team would perform very well I think.


so what say you?




see ya at the fishin hole!




13 comments:

  1. I think that if the Braves make the proper moves and do go into a win now mode, and go to the WS or even win the WS, that may help Liberty Media to listen to Frank about adding a few million onto the payroll. It looks like it's increased a bout 3-4 mil for the last couple of years, like a cost of living thing.

    I dont think Ross would sign because I read somewhere that he turned down a multi-year offer from ATL for a 1 yr deal with the Sox. I think we should look at maybe Liriano if he pitches well again. He's fairly young and still under control. JJ better be gone, so we need a couple of pitchers now.

    With all of the Dempster crap going on, I dont know if it goes through. I would love to see Soriano thrown in and give up a prospect or 2 for him to be our bench bat/4th of with diaz gone. Hinske got comfy and too big and is pressing, he should be released, although I hear he is well liked by the players.

    I still say go after Greinke now. He is someone who would allow for the braves to win now, and the money could be there to sign him to a multiyear deal if we do well and win. Also, get Dempster and/or Liriano.

    My rotation for 13 would be Greinke, Dempster, Sheets, Hudson, and someone in AAA now that's left. The more I think about it, I think Hanson should be traded now too. His value is still good with a #2 ceiling. He's a boras client so that means he's gonna wait till off season and make clubs bid over him and drive his price up. Might as well sell high. Also, I hear that he's not happy that he's been getting mininum raises during the arb process so he's not gonna give us a discount. I'd trade Delgado/Hanson for Greinke. I be tthey would do it. What do you think about my book lol?

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  2. The Braves cannot afford both Dempster and Greinke (even with losing JJ and trading Hanson) don't forget they have to fill the gaps in left and center.

    Even on the cheap (like my above scenario) left and center are costing you ten million, Greinke is gonna be $18 mill on a discount and I bet Dempster will want north of ten mill a year. No thank you

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  3. Dempster's off the table now it seems, which is fine with me. I like him and think he would help, but if he doesn't wanna be here fine. I still want Soriano personally. His numbers at Turner are great. He would be dirt cheap, and if he sucks he could serve as a ph until we traded him to the AL to serve as a DH.

    If we found a straight up suitor for uggla to cover his salary and give us a prospect, we could have bourn back for the same 13.2 mil. Apples to apples, I'd rather pay that money to Bourn for his production. However, Bourjous could be had for EOF and a prospect. Word is they will non-tender him. Might as well trade him if we're gonna do that right?!

    I am of the mindset that Constanza deserves a shot. He went south after he sprained his ankle last yr. He has thrown together another long hitting streak and would be a solid option to bat 9th and let the pitcher bat 10th. Gives 2 leadoffs essentially after the 1st inning.

    If Greinke is not acquired and there's money to spend, I'd call the Marlins or the Rockies and put a blockbuster package together for Stanton or Cargo. either would give us more runs per game so we could handle having a pitching staff of mediocrity.

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  4. Constanza sucks, he's a AAAA player and though an above avg fielder in left his bat is pretty much worthless.

    Never gonna move Uggla, nobody would cover his salary right now and you don't trade when people's value is that low.

    Bourn is gonna get 5-6 years at $15 mill per year and he is NOT woth that much. This year is suspicious as it's well above his prior years and it's unlikely he ever repeats this production again.

    I like the idea of Bourjos of course, but signs point to him going to the Rays in a deal for Shields....

    Now way the marlins move Stanton nor the Rockies Cargo without Simmons and Teheran in the deal, and eff that.

    look, you don't create a need as a GM, you don't empty out 2nd base when you have nobody to fill it(and Constanza is barely a 5th OF'er on a good team)

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  5. I dont see Constanza sucking. Why do you specifically say that? Is his def really bad? He seemed to inspire the club and hit well until he hurt his ankle last year. He just got called up again this year. For some reason I hear Fredi doesn't care for him. I dont know why he's not being dangled as bait. He should be good for some organization.

    You're right about bourn. He's not worth 15 mil. I honestly see him getting something like 10-12 though. And I would put Martin at 2B. We have to find something to do with Uggla. He cost the team the sat night game in Washington. How big is that game? How bad will it haunt us?

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  6. Since he had that 23 game run of hitting .300+ he has hit .154 with a terrible OBP and SLG%. If he had any actual MLB value he would have been traded by now. He's just an organizational depth type player. Good for little fill ins, but not really major league quality.

    Yes Uggla has struggled since mid June, but before that he was leading all NL 2nd baseman in everything by batting avg. Not to mention he is making $13 mill this year so he has very little trade value. He will get it going again. His career numbers say he will.

    Trust me, Bourn is gonna get around $15 mill a year. Adam Jones is 2 years younger and got a 6 year deal worth around that much per season, and he ISN'T a Scott Boras client like Bourn is. Somebody out there, the Giants,Nats,Rangers...etc will overpay for him. Remember he's having one of the best seasons in the NL this year.

    Prado's best position is 3rd base and when you look at the lack of good players at that position and his type of hitting success (high contact, medium power, high avg) he profiles better at 3rd. It's much easier too, for Wren to put him at 3rd and go get a slugging left fielder than it is to trade Uggla, put Prado at 2nd, then try and find a decent 3rd baseman AND a center fielder AND a left fielder....

    Good GM's don't create an opening(or a need if you will) they fill the empty spots they have. For the Braves this offseason, it will probably be a starter, LF and CF. Though if someone asked about Uggla and made a good offer, I would certainly be open to trading him. Especially if we got a young CF'er out of the deal.

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    1. Just a ? for clarity's sake in reference to Constanza one more time. You say he hit .154. Is this in the majors? Because he was struggling with an injury. I see that his AAA #s show he hit .312 last year in 86 games, and this year he has hit .324.

      He's hitting .250 for us since being called up too. I think he needs a few more ABs to get used to the pitching quality vs the minors, but with his being controlled for so long, he has to have a little value right?

      And, while I'm talking about minor league players, what's the deal with Feliz Pie? He's hitting .292 with 66 hits in 66 games. 25/66 are xbh...16 dbl, 6 trp, 3 hr. is he just filling roster space or could he potentially be used to bridge the gap if we run into money issues next year and need an internal option on the cheap?

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    2. look, he's not a good baseball player, the word got out on him and pitchers learned they didn't have to throw him strikes. The ankle injury excuse doesn't hold water.

      in 2012 he is hitting .222/.222/.250

      Constanza's first 95 plate appearances he hit .330/.365/.440

      his ensuing 60 plate appearances he's hitting .208/.212/.262

      that is terrible, not to mention he is 8-12 in stolen base attmepts (a bad 66%).


      People have this strange idea that he's somehow a starter level player. You can't ignore the parts where he is shitty just because you remember some hot streak.

      He's not a starter in the big league's, He's pretty much a 4th or 5th OF'er at best and I personally don't think he's good enough for that.

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  7. What do you think about this for this year? Obtaining Bonifacio for Rev and Spruill maybe. He's not gonna hit for power, but he is the only one who was outstealing Bourn before he got hurt earlier this year. He is a lot like Prado in that he can play 6/8 positions (no C or 1B) and is under controll for a while.

    Also, would we match up with the Reds to be able to acquire Heisey? He's batting about .275ish I think and could be a decent LF. He's young and under control too. Right up Wren's alley.

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    1. I reckon any bench bat we get isn't going to be a guy like that, but more like a Reed Johnson type. Someone used to platoons and hitting off the bench. Also, someone who's cheaper than a starting player like Bonafacio

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  8. Well for what it's worth, I like Heisey if the pieces match up for a bright future and a salary relief for help elsewhere. Also, I couldn't comment on your other post on chop nation, but I like the Carlos Gomez idea. He hit a moon shot off Lee the other night...Lee sucks a fat one these days btw. Good!

    Happy Chopping. Thanks for sharing ideas.

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  9. I would love to get Heisey, but I think the Reds ALSO view him as their future in left. But if we could get him without giving up too much I'd be all for it.

    I really have no clue what direction the Braves will go in the OF next year. I suspect they go young in center and veteran in left. They tend to go for one veteran in the OF at all times.

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